■
1st Edition Base Set Survival Numbers: Even Commons Are Extremely Rare!
The 1st Edition Base Set of Pokémon cards was released in 1999 and continues to attract passionate collectors worldwide. In this article, we focus on the survival numbers of this set, examining the rarity of even common cards. Some of the data here involves AI-assisted research, so there may be inaccuracies. Please enjoy this as a reasoned estimation.
If you notice any errors, please feel free to let us know.
Estimating Print Numbers
The 1st Edition Base Set was printed in approximately 2,160,000 packs (according to InQuest magazine). Each pack contains 11 cards, roughly broken down as follows:
- Common: 6 cards
- Uncommon: 3 cards
- Rare: 1 card
- Energy: 1 card (excluded from calculations)
The total number of unique cards in the set is:
- Common: 40 types
- Uncommon: 30 types
- Rare: 16 types
Estimated number of prints per card type:
- Common: (2,160,000 × 6) ÷ 40 = 324,000 copies per card
- Uncommon: (2,160,000 × 3) ÷ 30 = 216,000 copies per card
- Rare: (2,160,000 × 1) ÷ 16 = 135,000 copies per card
Estimated Surviving Cards
Considering years of circulation, loss, and damage, the overall survival rate is estimated at 20%. The estimated surviving numbers are:
- Common: 64,800 copies
- Uncommon: 43,200 copies
- Rare: 27,000 copies
Cards in excellent condition (PSA 8-10) are estimated to make up about 5% of the surviving cards:
- Common: 16,200 copies
- Uncommon: 10,800 copies
- Rare: 6,750 copies
Actual PSA Submissions
According to the latest data from Pikawiz, the PSA 8-10 submission numbers for 1st Edition cards are as follows:
| Card Name | PSA 8-10 Submissions |
|---|---|
| Pikachu | 4,406 |
| Charmander | 4,222 |
| Squirtle | 4,147 |
| Bulbasaur | 3,994 |
Analysis
Each 1st Edition card is more than just a piece of paper. Cards in excellent condition are extremely rare, and even common cards in PSA 8-10 condition may only number in the few thousands to around 10,000. Popular cards like Pikachu and Charmander are in particularly high demand, so when they appear on the market, collectors often need to act immediately.
Conclusion
- Although printed in hundreds of thousands per card, surviving numbers are estimated at roughly 20%.
- PSA 8-10 cards are even rarer, with commons possibly numbering only a few thousand to around 10,000.
- Actual PSA submissions confirm these numbers, showing that many cards have already been absorbed by the market.
In other words, the 1st Edition Base Set remains a highly sought-after collection. Even common cards in mint condition should be considered for immediate purchase if you find them.
Cheers!
